Tech Predictions, 2013

Once again, it's time for my annual prognostication and review of last year's efforts. For those of you who've been long-time readers, you know what this means, but for those two or three of you who haven't seen this before, let's set the rules: if I got a prediction right from last year, you take a drink, and if I didn't, you take a drink. (Best. Drinking game. EVAR!)

Let's begin....

Recap: 2012 Predictions

THEN: Lisps will be the languages to watch.

With Clojure leading the way, Lisps (that is, languages that are more or less loosely based on Common Lisp or one of its variants) are slowly clawing their way back into the limelight. Lisps are both functional languages as well as dynamic languages, which gives them a significant reason for interest. Clojure runs on top of the JVM, which makes it highly interoperable with other JVM languages/systems, and Clojure/CLR is the version of Clojure for the CLR platform, though there seems to be less interest in it in the .NET world (which is a mistake, if you ask me).

NOW: Clojure is definitely cementing itself as a "critic's darling" of a language among the digital cognoscenti, but I don't see its uptake increasing--or decreasing. It seems that, like so many critic's darlings, those who like it are using it, and those who aren't have either never heard of it (the far more likely scenario) or don't care for it. Datomic, a NoSQL written by the creator of Clojure (Rich Hickey), is interesting, but I've not heard of many folks taking it up, either. And Clojure/CLR is all but dead, it seems. I score myself a "0" on this one.

THEN: Functional languages will....

I have no idea. As I said above, I'm kind of stymied on the whole functional-language thing and their future. I keep thinking they will either "take off" or "drop off", and they keep tacking to the middle, doing neither, just sort of hanging in there as a concept for programmers to take and run with. Mind you, I like functional languages, and I want to see them become mainstream, or at least more so, but I keep wondering if the mainstream programming public is ready to accept the ideas and concepts hiding therein. So this year, let's try something different: I predict that they will remain exactly where they are, neither "done" nor "accepted", but continue next year to sort of hang out in the middle.

NOW: Functional concepts are slowly making their way into the mainstream of programming topics, but in some cases, programmers seem to be picking-and-choosing which of the functional concepts they believe in. I've heard developers argue vehemently about "lazy values" but go "meh" about lack-of-side-effects, or vice versa. Moreover, it seems that developers are still taking an "object-first, functional-when-I-need-it" kind of approach, which seems a little object-heavy, if you ask me. So, since the concepts seem to be taking some sort of shallow root, I don't know that I get the point for this one, but at the same time, it's not like I was wildly off. So, let's say "0" again.

THEN: F#'s type providers will show up in C# v.Next.

This one is actually a "gimme", if you look across the history of F# and C#: for almost every version of F# v."N", features from that version show up in C# v."N+1". More importantly, F# 3.0's type provider feature is an amazing idea, and one that I think will open up language research in some very interesting ways. (Not sure what F#'s type providers are or what they'll do for you? Check out Don Syme's talk on it at BUILD last year.)

NOW: C# v.Next hasn't been announced yet, so I can't say that this one has come true. We should start hearing some vague rumors out of Redmond soon, though, so maybe 2013 will be the year that C# gets type providers (or some scaled-back version thereof). Again, a "0".

THEN: Windows8 will generate a lot of chatter.

As 2012 progresses, Microsoft will try to force a lot of buzz around it by keeping things under wraps until various points in the year that feel strategic (TechEd, BUILD, etc). In doing so, though, they will annoy a number of people by not talking about them more openly or transparently.

NOW: Oh, my, did they. Windows8 was announced with a bang, but Microsoft (and Sinofsky, who ran the OS division up until recently) decided that they could go it alone and leave critical partners (like Dropbox!) out of the loop entirely. As a result, the Windows8 Store didn't have a lot of apps in it that people (including myself) really expected would be there. And THEN, there was Surface... which took everybody by surprise, as near as I can tell. Totally under wraps. I'm scoring myself "+2" for that one.

THEN: Windows8 ("Metro")-style apps won't impress at first.

The more I think about it, the more I'm becoming convinced that Metro-style apps on a desktop machine are going to collectively underwhelm. The UI simply isn't designed for keyboard-and-mouse kinds of interaction, and that's going to be the hardware setup that most people first experience Windows8 on--contrary to what (I think) Microsoft thinks, people do not just have tablets laying around waiting for Windows 8 to be installed on it, nor are they going to buy a Windows8 tablet just to try it out, at least not until it's gathered some mojo behind it. Microsoft is going to have to finesse the messaging here very, very finely, and that's not something they've shown themselves to be particularly good at over the last half-decade.

NOW: I find myself somewhat at a loss how to score this one--on the one hand, the "used-to-be-called-Metro"-style applications aren't terrible, and I haven't really heard anyone complain about them tremendously, but at the same time, I haven't heard anyone really go wild and ga-ga over them, either. Part of that, I think, is because there just aren't a lot of apps out there for it yet, aside from a rather skimpy selection of games (compared to the iOS App Store and Android Play Store). Again, I think Microsoft really screwed themselves with this one--keeping it all under wraps helped them make a big "Oh, WOW" kind of event buzz within the conference hall when they announced Surface, for example, but that buzz sort of left the room (figuratively) when people started looking for their favorite apps so they could start using that device. (Which, by the way, isn't a bad piece of hardware, I'm finding.) I'll give myself a "+1" for this.

THEN: Scala will get bigger, thanks to Heroku.

With the adoption of Scala and Play for their Java apps, Heroku is going to make Scala look attractive as a development platform, and the adoption of Play by Typesafe (the same people who brought you Akka) means that these four--Heroku, Scala, Play and Akka--will combine into a very compelling and interesting platform. I'm looking forward to seeing what comes of that.

NOW: We're going to get to cloud in a second, but on the whole, Heroku is now starting to make Scala/Play attractive, arguably as attractive as Ruby/Rails is. Play 2.0 unfortunately is not backwards-compatible with Play 1.x modules, which hurts it, but hopefully the Play community brings that back up to speed fairly quickly. "+1"

THEN: Cloud will continue to whip up a lot of air.

For all the hype and money spent on it, it doesn't really seem like cloud is gathering commensurate amounts of traction, across all the various cloud providers with the possible exception of Amazon's cloud system. But, as the different cloud platforms start to diversify their platform technology (Microsoft seems to be leading the way here, ironically, with the introduction of Java, Hadoop and some limited NoSQL bits into their Azure offerings), and as we start to get more experience with the pricing and costs of cloud, 2012 might be the year that we start to see mainstream cloud adoption, beyond "just" the usage patterns we've seen so far (as a backing server for mobile apps and as an easy way to spin up startups).

NOW: It's been whipping up air, all right, but it's starting to look like tornadoes and hurricanes--the talk of 2012 seems to have been more around notable cloud outages instead of notable cloud successes, capped off by a nationwide Netflix outage on Christmas Eve that seemed to dominate my Facebook feed that night. Later analysis suggested that the outage was with Amazon's AWS cloud, on which Netflix resides, and boy, did that make a few heads spin. I suspect we haven't yet (as of this writing) seen the last of that discussion. Overall, it seems like lots of startups and other greenfield apps are being deployed to the cloud, but it seems like corporations are hesitating to pull the trigger on an "all-in" kind of cloud adoption, because of some of the fears surrounding cloud security and now (of all things) robustness. "+1"

THEN: Android tablets will start to gain momentum.

Amazon's Kindle Fire has hit the market strong, definitely better than any other Android-based tablet before it. The Nooq (the Kindle's principal competitor, at least in the e-reader world) is also an Android tablet, which means that right now, consumers can get into the Android tablet world for far, far less than what an iPad costs. Apple rumors suggest that they may have a 7" form factor tablet that will price competitively (in the $200/$300 range), but that's just rumor right now, and Apple has never shown an interest in that form factor, which means the 7" world will remain exclusively Android's (at least for now), and that's a nice form factor for a lot of things. This translates well into more sales of Android tablets in general, I think.

NOW: Google's Nexus 7 came to dominate the discussion of the 7" tablet, until...

THEN: Apple will release an iPad 3, and it will be "more of the same".

Trying to predict Apple is generally a lost cause, particularly when it comes to their vaunted iOS lines, but somewhere around the middle of the year would be ripe for a new iPad, at the very least. (With the iPhone 4S out a few months ago, it's hard to imagine they'd cannibalize those sales by releasing a new iPhone, until the end of the year at the earliest.) Frankly, though, I don't expect the iPad 3 to be all that big of a boost, just a faster processor, more storage, and probably about the same size. Probably the only thing I'd want added to the iPad would be a USB port, but that conflicts with the Apple desire to present the iPad as a "device", rather than as a "computer". (USB ports smack of "computers", not self-contained "devices".)

NOW: ... the iPad Mini. Which, I'd like to point out, is just an iPad in a 7" form factor. (Actually, I think it's a little bit bigger than most 7" tablets--it looks to be a smidge wider than the other 7" tablets I have.) And the "new iPad" (not the iPad 3, which I call a massive FAIL on the part of Apple marketing) is exactly that: same iPad, just faster. And still no USB port on either the iPad or iPad Mini. So between this one and the previous one, I score myself at "+3" across both.

THEN: Apple will get hauled in front of the US government for... something.

Apple's recent foray in the legal world, effectively informing Samsung that they can't make square phones and offering advice as to what will avoid future litigation, smacks of such hubris and arrogance, it makes Microsoft look like a Pollyanna Pushover by comparison. It is pretty much a given, it seems to me, that a confrontation in the legal halls is not far removed, either with the US or with the EU, over anti-cometitive behavior. (And if this kind of behavior continues, and there is no legal action, it'll be pretty apparent that Apple has a pretty good set of US Congressmen and Senators in their pocket, something they probably learned from watching Microsoft and IBM slug it out rather than just buy them off.)

NOW: Congress has started to take a serious look at the patent system and how it's being used by patent trolls (of which, folks, I include Apple these days) to stifle innovation and create this Byzantine system of cross-patent licensing that only benefits the big players, which was exactly what the patent system was designed to avoid. (Patents were supposed to be a way to allow inventors, who are often independents, to avoid getting crushed by bigger, established, well-monetized firms.) Apple hasn't been put squarely in the crosshairs, but the Economist's article on Apple, Google, Microsoft and Amazon in the Dec 11th issue definitely points out that all four are squarely in the sights of governments on both sides of the Atlantic. Still, no points for me.

THEN: IBM will be entirely irrelevant again.

Look, IBM's main contribution to the Java world is/was Eclipse, and to a much lesser degree, Harmony. With Eclipse more or less "done" (aside from all the work on plugins being done by third parties), and with IBM abandoning Harmony in favor of OpenJDK, IBM more or less removes themselves from the game, as far as developers are concerned. Which shouldn't really be surprising--they've been more or less irrelevant pretty much ever since the mid-2000s or so.

NOW: IBM who? Wait, didn't they used to make a really kick-ass laptop, back when we liked using laptops? "+1"

THEN: Oracle will "screw it up" at least once.

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