Two roads diverge in the Java GUI wood: More Swing vs. JavaFX

We've discussed here before the brewing battle between Swing and JavaFX for the hearts and minds of desktop Java GUI developers. Will the two technologies develop in parallel, each with their own areas of specialization, or will JavaFX come to supplant Swing [1] -- and if the latter occurs, will it be an organized and open effort, or will it happen surreptitiously [2]? There are a couple of blog posts that recently went up on the subject:

• Jonathan Giles proclaimed a desire for a true 2.0 version of Swing [3], and outlined his opinion of what should go into such a package.
• Meanwhile, Swing developer Thierry Lefort believes that JavaFX is the wave of the future [4].

As is often the case, the real meat of the discussion lies is in the comments of these blog posts, which seem pretty equally divided. I'm not really technically equipped to come up with an answer myself, but one of the driving factors of the divide is that many Swing developers are balking at learning a whole new API (and language, in the form of JavaFX script!) to take on JavaFX. I always bet on shiny newness to win out in the IT industry whether it ought to or not, but since familiarity across platforms is one of the selling points of Java, perhaps that will have something to say about this outcome. It's interesting that developers are even willing to accept a Swing 2.0 that isn't entirely backwards compatible, so long as they can stick with a largely familiar API.

Also! It's not Swing or JavaFX related, but I did want to point you to an excellent JavaWorld article by Jon Brodkin, called "Sun fights for Java, but not alone [5]." It talks a lot about a whole host of issues that I focus on here at Java To Go -- how Java is transitioning to an open source project, how Sun is dealing with (or failing to deal with) the loss of control that entails, what will happen to Java if Sun's resources fade or the company goes under entirely, etc. It's good stuff.