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What can kill Java?
The new programming language must now dodge some serious land mines
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Sun is in the strange position of owning one of the world's hottest technologies, but finding it difficult to exploit it to its full financial potential. While Sun can license the JDK freely, it will be difficult for it to license other Java-based products aggressively without threatening other developers of Java products. A good example of this is the Java Workshop, a set of browser-based tools that Sun is selling. The smart strategic move was for Sun to give this product away for free for a long period of time to establish itself as a player in development tools on non-Sun platforms. But to do so threatens the markets of key Java customers like Borland.
To win in the long term, Sun must become a successful software company. To accomplish this, it must both own Java and let it go. The best strategy for Sun is to spin out JavaSoft as a separate company and permit ownership by other players, even Microsoft. Doing so will allow it to place the future of Java in safe hands and set it free to compete with other Java software companies. If Sun holds Java too closely, or conversely, allows multiple variants to survive, it will kill the language.
Microsoft: adopt it, adapt it, own it and then kill it
Microsoft clearly agrees with Don Corleone. "Keep your friends close," said the Godfather, "but your enemies closer." Microsoft is an active but reticent adherent to the Java religion. Its Visual J++ product undoubtedly will be the de facto standard for Java developers on Windows, and will provide a healthy revenue stream for the company. However, making a little money on Java is not Microsoft's intent. The smart move is for Microsoft to adopt Java while it must, and attempt to own the language over time. There are several opportunities for the company to do so.
While Microsoft's Internet Explorer runs Java applets, it does so by wrapping them and executing them as ActiveX components. This strategy gives Microsoft an opportunity to meddle with (or enhance) the virtual machine. Microsoft extensions, modifications, and options to either the language or virtual machine may permit it to create the de facto standard for both. The same is true with Visual J++. If Sun can continue to define the language and virtual machine, it cannot hope to match Microsoft in supplying a set of integral class libraries, APIs, and other interfaces that a majority of developers will use. Technology is no match for market share as a defining force in the software market. By being the market leader in class libraries and APIs (even second-rate ones), Microsoft can end up "owning" the Java world just as Sun does today.
If Microsoft ends up owning Java, watch out. It will maintain an option of continuing to own it, or enhancing it to death.
Intel: the soul of a new (virtual) machine
In an attempt to rapidly codify a standard definition of both the language and virtual machine, Sun has been quick to drop Java into silicon. Java on a chip is a great opportunity for Sun to sell microprocessors and computer hardware, as well as a good idea for the market overall. However, even in the Java world, Sun is a third-tier chip vendor. For Java to win at the silicon level, Intel must support it.
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