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What can kill Java?
The new programming language must now dodge some serious land mines
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Intel sees advantages and disadvantages in supporting the Java chip. The advantage is continuing to own the desktop of the future in the way Intel does today. Supporting Java directly in a follow-on microprocessor or by providing surround logic for its existing chips means that Intel can be well-positioned regardless of the ultimate winner in the great Internet software race. The disadvantage is supporting an architecture it doesn't own.
Another important twist may be in the way Intel supports Java in silicon -- if it does so at all. If it supports the virtual machine directly, Java will not only execute rapidly, it will have the opportunity to dominate on the desktop and in Internet appliances of the future. If Intel supports Java by supporting the Microsoft interpreter in hardware, then it has the opportunity to own the reference platform for Java in the same way as Microsoft may in software: adopt it, adapt it, own it, and kill it. In a world in which market share is everything, the temptation will be to follow the Microsoft path, and this path will be difficult for Java.
Unix vendors: follow the leader or get out of the game
In the last several years, but before Java, Hewlett-Packard was taking market share from Sun in the Unix workstation market. The SPARC microprocessor fell behind in performance (or at least perception) as HP began to close the gap in available applications software.
Similarly, Silicon Graphics and IBM established significant and differentiated customer bases in workstations, while a multitude of computer vendors used Unix to build significant server businesses. While Java has changed the computing landscape, it has not changed the corporate cultures of any of these companies. Unix companies would like to see Microsoft trip and fall, but their cultures are based on placing land mines in Sun's path. The Unix landscape is littered with an endless string of consortia, alliances, and competing standards all designed to stop Sun.
Java is clearly viewed as a Microsoft killer in the Unix community, but it is difficult to break old habits. Unless Sun spins out JavaSoft or recasts it as an open consortium, one or more Unix vendors will find a way to support Windows NT and ActiveX against Java. Digital has already built a successful business by providing NT on its Alpha chips; Hewlett-Packard is expected to do the same. In doing so, both will be mightily tempted to support any Microsoft initiative that helps them and hurts Sun.
There is a tremendous strategic advantage for all Unix vendors in supporting the Sun Java standards in both word and deed; but public companies (in America at least) make decisions on quarterly fiscal boundaries, and more than one will be inclined to choose short-term gain over long-term advantage.
Conclusion
Java seems unstoppable, but it is not. There are a thousand pitfalls for it to overcome to realize its full potential. Churchill declared the battle at El Alamein as the "Hinge of Fate" on which the future of democracy hung. The next year will provide a dozen hinges for Java.
About the author
William Blundon is president and COO of SourceCraft Inc. (http://www.sourcecraft.com), a leading developer of intranet development tools for Java and C++. His focus in the last seven years has been on distributed-object environments and the Internet. He is a former director of the Object Management Group.- Feedback
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