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However, these advantages come with some tradeoffs. As a practical matter, users may have live Excel spreadsheets available in their browser as long as the browser is Internet Explorer, the operating system is Windows, the platform is Intel, and either Excel or an Excel runtime is available on their client machine. Publishing live OLE content in the browser is a significant advantage for ActiveX, as long as a company can maintain a homogeneous Microsoft environment. Netscape calls ActiveX "CaptiveX." In this context the term is not far from the truth.
The issue of migrating existing OCXes and programming staffs into the intranet may be the defining one. Most companies have a tremendous sunk cost in existing business logic and overworked programming staffs. Reusing existing logic and programmers may well make ActiveX a standard behind the firewall.
Business logic must execute somewhere. When it must execute across both clients and servers, Java has the edge. Java has the best hope of providing true platform-independent computing. On the server, in particular, Java has a real opportunity to shine. As JDBC database connectivity becomes prevalent, as Java finds its way onto virtually every computer architecture and operating system, and as better development tools find their way to market, Java will have removed all technical obstacles from its path to becoming the king of serverdom.
No matter how successful Microsoft is in making ActiveX an industry standard, it does not have the potential to be a major player on non-Wintel servers. Windows NT is rapidly making inroads into the market for corporate servers. However, Unix and IBM platforms like the AS/400 will continue to command significant market share in the corporate intranet. Unless and until ActiveX becomes a cross-platform standard, it will always have a problem in dominating the intranet.
Java is a winner in the Internet, where heterogeneous computing is mandatory. Both Java and ActiveX have major advantages in the intranet. The next several years will see many ups and downs for both technologies. Market share will be as important as technology in determining the victor. Only Netscape's 40 million browsers have a chance of competing with Microsoft's enormous installed base.
It's still too close to make a call in the intranet. If Java wins, the most important reason will be this: The best, most portable, most heterogeneous ActiveX component in the world is a Java applet.