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You've probably heard of Robert X. Cringely. He wrote the Triumph of the Nerds, which was turned into a mini-series on PBS. He has a commentary page, called "I, Cringely," on www.pbs.org. (See Resources for a link to his site.) I respect Robert's opinions; he is one of the few who actually researches a subject before writing about it. I sent e-mail to him to tell him that I generally agree with his commentaries but disagreed with his views on Java. He sent me this response:
You can't write anything in Java that can't be written (and run faster) in C++. Java may well be the next important phase in software development, but it is only a phase. Java is the Pascal of the 90s.
When Bell Labs physicists Bardeen, Brattain, and Shockley created the first point contact bipolar transistor in 1948, someone must have made the observation that a transistor can't do anything more than what a vacuum tube can do. Basically, transistors and vacuum tubes are merely amplifiers, and for many years, tubes were cheaper, faster, and basically better amplifiers than transistors were.
Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore didn't view the transistor as just a vacuum tube replacement. They understood the potential of transistors, founded Fairchild Semiconductor, and later founded a new company called Intel. One could argue that the transistor is just a phase in amplifier development, but transistors have become so ubiquitous that they have influenced our lives in profound ways.
Like the transistor, Java is no great leap in terms of fundamental operations. What makes Java significant is what makes the transistor significant: a shift in the direction of technology and how we use it. It's not about rewriting old applications in Java or moving from C++ to Java. It's about a new class of functionality that just wasn't considered practical before. Java bytecodes are an abstract representation of processors. This means that information contained in something as pedestrian as a smart card in your wallet or a ring on your finger can be understood by any computer anywhere. Another possibility is that complex information stored in a database can be represented efficiently and succinctly as a Java object using Java Blend API. These objects can be delivered to any type of display device or can come from any type of data entry device using remote method invocation (RMI). All of this was theoretically possible before Java but was considered impractical due to complex implementation details.